@article{oai:tokyo-metro-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00003679,
 author = {ナカバヤシ, イツキ and Nakabayashi, Itsuki and 中林, 一樹},
 issue = {2},
 journal = {都市科学研究},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {首都圏直下でマグニチュード7クラスの地震が30年以内に発生する確率は70％であり、首都機能の集中した東京を襲う可能性が高いと公表されている。最悪のケースは、風速15m の強い季節風が吹く冬の夕方に地震が発生した時で、中央防災会議による被害想定（2005）によると、東京湾北部地震（M7.3）による被害量は、阪神･淡路大震災（1995）の8倍にも達する可能性がある。東京区部を中心に20 万棟の家屋が全壊し65 万棟の建物が全焼する。1万1千人がこれらに起因して死亡し、損失額は112兆円と推計された。それは、67兆円の家屋や都市施設の復旧費用と45兆円の生産機能の低下や交通障害・機会喪失による生産性の低下にともなう損失である。このような直下地震に対して、東京都は新たに制定した震災対策条例のもと、震災対策を3 つのステップで実施している。第一に、事前に取り組むべき建物耐震化・不燃化や防災まちづくりなど震災予防対策で直接被害を軽減し、第二は災害発生後に消火や救出救助などの対応活動によって直接被害の拡大を防ぎ、第三は事前に準備する災害復興対策によって間接被害を縮小することが可能となる。とくに、事前復興対策として、復興まちづくり模擬訓練という、世界で初めての取り組みを進めている。しかし、首都機能の維持や膨大な被害に対する対応対策の具体化など継続すべき検討課題も多い。, It is predicted that a probability of the next Tokyo Earthquake as a class of magnitude 7 is about 70 percentage in next three decades, which will occur beneath the Tokyo Capital Region and shall hit the Central part of Tokyo as a Capital City Center. According to the damage scenario research of the next Tokyo Earthquake conducted by Central Disaster Management Committee (CDMC), the volume of houses damage is estimated as eight times as that of the 1995 Hanshin-awaji Earthquake, in the worst case of the next Tokyo earthquake disaster, which occurred in the evening of winter season with strong wind of 15 meters per second. As a result of the research, the Northern Tokyo Bay Earthquake of M.7.3 is the worst case. Approximately 200,000 of houses are collapsed severely and 650,000 of wooden houses are burnt down mainly in central Tokyo area of 23 special wards. Eleven thousands of persons are killed by them and the economic losses are estimated as 112 trillion yen, which includes both 67 trillion yen for reconstruction of houses and urban facilities, and 45 trillion yen of indirect loss caused from disturbances of transportation and decline of industrial productivity. Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG) enacted new Earthquake Measures Ordinance in order to decrease damages through the three steps of countermeasures. The first step is disaster prevention measures such as retro-fitting of houses, fire-proofing of wooden houses, urban improvement of crowded wooden houses districts “Bosai machizukuri in Japanese”. The second step is disaster mitigation measures through disaster response activities such as fire-fighting, rescue, evacuation, medical services and so on, and the third step is recovery and reconstruction measures to decrease indirect losses. Recently TMG found that it is important to prepare the urban recovery and reconstruction measures before disaster. We are developing the methods of urban recovery drill for local government and community, and improving them through the implementation of recovery drill. There are many issues to be continued to be resolved and to be prepared.},
 pages = {69--81},
 title = {東京における地震危険の事前評価と地震に強い都市づくり},
 year = {2008}
}